Brazil will take in 67.6 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee from the 2026 crop, the largest harvest in the agency's records, according to the third survey of the cycle published by Conab, Brazil's national crop agency, on 24 September 2026. That is 19.6% above the 2025 crop. Set against the 179.7 million bags Conab expects the world to drink in 2026/27, one country is growing more than a third of global demand in a single year.
Almost all of the gain is arabica. Conab put arabica at 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% on 2025, and conilon — Brazil's name for the robusta it grows — at 19.4 million bags, down 6.6%.
What did Conab actually count?
Conab reported the harvest 99% complete when it took the survey on 24 September 2026. In that same 24 September 2026 survey Conab recorded yields rising 13.8%, from 30.4 to 34.6 bags a hectare, across a production area of 1.95 million hectares, 5.1% wider than a year earlier.
Comunicaffe, reporting the survey on 25 September 2026, put the revision at 900,000 bags above Conab's May estimate and broke the total down by state: Minas Gerais at 35.6 million bags, up 38.9%; Espírito Santo at 16.507 million, down 5.4%; São Paulo at 6.192 million, up 30.6%; Bahia at 4.49 million, up 1.2%; and Rondônia at 2.88 million, up 24%. Minas Gerais alone is more than half the national crop.
Why is arabica up and conilon down?
Conab attributed the arabica jump in part to the positive half of the crop's biennial cycle, the two-year rhythm in which a heavy year is followed by a light one, in the release carried by Agência Gov on 24 September 2026.
The land and the yield moved in opposite directions for the two species. Comunicaffe's 25 September report of the survey recorded arabica on 1.56 million hectares, 5.3% more land than in 2025, yielding 30.8 bags a hectare, 28% higher. Conilon took 386,600 hectares, 4% more land, and yielded 50.2 bags a hectare, 10.2% lower than the year before. Even after that fall, conilon out-yields arabica by roughly twenty bags a hectare on Conab's own figures.
What are the numbers, with their sources?
- 67.6 million 60-kg bags: Brazil's 2026 crop, third survey, as reported by Conab on 24 September 2026
- 48.2 million bags arabica, up 34.8%: as reported by Conab on 24 September 2026
- 19.4 million bags conilon, down 6.6%: as reported by Conab on 24 September 2026
- 34.6 bags a hectare, against 30.4 a year earlier: as reported by Conab on 24 September 2026
- 3.8 million bags exported in August 2026, up 43.2% on August 2025: as reported by Conab on 24 September 2026
- 71.9 million bags: the USDA's figure for the 2026/27 Brazilian crop, as reported by Perfect Daily Grind on 25 September 2026
- 275.90 cents a pound: December arabica in New York on 23 September 2026, as reported by Comunicaffe on 24 September 2026
- 287.29 US cents a pound: the ICO composite indicator averaged across August 2026, as published by the ICO in its August 2026 Coffee Market Report
What has the harvest done to the price?
Arabica futures fell sharply to a three-month low in the week to 25 September 2026, Bhavi Patel reported in Perfect Daily Grind's dated news recap. Perfect Daily Grind published no price figure with that claim, and the nearest dated exchange numbers sit in Comunicaffe's market report of 24 September 2026: arabica for December delivery in New York at 275.90 cents a pound on 23 September, up 1.3% on the day, and robusta for November in London at $3,317 a tonne, up 1.7%. Comunicaffe described that move as technical buying after a heavy sell-off had pushed the market into oversold ground.
Speculative positioning moved with it. The same report cited ICE arabica Commitment of Traders data for 23 September 2026 showing the non-commercial sector flipping from net long to a net short of 1,716 lots, and Managed Money cutting its net long by 29.2% to 15,654 lots. The South African trading house I & M Smith, quoted by Comunicaffe, said the data "has now become distinctly less bullish in the short term."
The most recent settled benchmark is monthly rather than daily. The International Coffee Organization's August 2026 Coffee Market Report put its composite indicator price at an average of 287.29 US cents a pound across August 2026, effectively level with July's 287.26. That is an August average, and it is the newest figure the ICO has published.
Is the market heading into a surplus?
StoneX projects the global market swinging to a surplus of about 10 million bags in 2026, against 1.8 million bags in 2025, a figure Perfect Daily Grind carried in its 25 September 2026 recap. That is a projection rather than a measurement, and the projections do not agree with each other.
They do not even agree on how big Brazil's crop is. The United States Department of Agriculture puts the 2026/27 Brazilian harvest at 71.9 million bags, with arabica alone at 47.5 million and up 25%, according to the figures Perfect Daily Grind carried in its recap of 25 September 2026. That is 4.3 million bags above Conab's total and slightly below Conab's arabica figure. The two bodies count on different calendars — Conab reports the 2026 crop year and the USDA the 2026/27 marketing year.
What could still move the number?
Next year's crop is already forming on the trees. Cepea, the agricultural economics research center at the University of São Paulo, said September rainfall was supporting the flowering of Brazil's 2027/28 crop, with variation between regions, in remarks carried by Comunicaffe on 24 September 2026. The same report noted continuing concern among analysts about the effect of El Niño in the coming months.
Shipping is a separate question from growing. Conab recorded 3.8 million bags exported in August 2026, 43.2% more than in August 2025, while the January-to-August total of 24.6 million bags came in 6.6% below the same stretch of 2025. A record crop and a shrinking year-to-date export total are both true at once.
Conab will publish a fourth survey later in the cycle. Until it does, the 67.6 million bags Conab reported on 24 September 2026 is the number of record, and it was counted with 99% of the crop already off the trees. For background on what Brazil grows and how it is processed, see our explainers on Brazilian coffee and on heirloom varieties, or browse the rest of Origins & Sourcing.
