Arabica coffee's December contract on ICE in New York closed at 288.75 US cents a pound on Monday 28 September 2026, up 3.6% and 1,015 points from Friday's close, according to Comunicaffe, which called the settlement a 10-day high. The London robusta contract for November, quoted in dollars a tonne, ended the same session at $3,412, up 1.3% and its highest in nearly two weeks. Comunicaffe tied both moves to traders buying back bets that prices would fall, rather than to any fresh change in how much coffee exists.
Six days earlier the market had run the other way. Coffee futures fell sharply on Tuesday 22 September, with arabica reaching three-month lows, on Perfect Daily Grind's Coffee News Recap published 25 September.
What is short covering, and why did it lift the price?
A short position is a bet that a price will fall. The trader sells a contract they do not own, planning to buy it back cheaper and keep the difference. Buying it back is called covering. Comunicaffe reported on 29 September 2026 that the Commitments of Traders data showed the non-commercial speculative sector had raised its short position by 277%, and that the rebound was those positions being closed: "the rally in New York primarily reflects an ongoing technical correction in response to the COT data." When enough sellers have to buy, the buying itself lifts the price, and nothing about supply has to change for that to happen.
What did the weather have to do with it?
Comunicaffe also pointed to Brazilian forecasts of minimal rainfall for that week, which matters because the trees are in spring flowering. Flowering sets the size of the following year's crop, so a dry spell at that point is a question about 2027 rather than about coffee already graded and sitting in a warehouse.
The two species do not take dryness the same way. Aaron Davis, senior research leader of crops and global change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, is quoted by Comunicaffe in a market report it published on 1 September 2026 saying that "Robusta is more heat-tolerant than Arabica, but it's drought-intolerant." That is one researcher's summary of the plant science, not a forecast about prices. They are different species rather than different grades, which is why one weather event can move the two contracts unequally.
How low are the exchange stocks?
Certified stocks stood at 253,203 bags on Comunicaffe's 29 September reporting. Set that against the same outlet's figure for 31 August 2026, when it put ICE arabica certified stocks at 223,976 bags and described them as the lowest since 1999. Stocks have come up off that low, and they remain small measured against world trade. The International Coffee Organization put July 2026 global green bean exports at 10.76 million bags in its Coffee Market Report for August 2026, up 6.3% on 10.12 million bags in July 2025.
Certified stock and export volume are not the same measure. One is coffee already graded and held in exchange-approved warehouses, deliverable against a futures contract. The other is coffee leaving origin in a month. Side by side they show how thin the deliverable pool is against the volume in trade.
What does the ICO's own price index show?
The ICO's composite indicator price, the I-CIP, averaged 287.29 US cents a pound across August 2026, which the same report called "effectively unchanged from July 2026 (287.26 US cents/lb)". The I-CIP is not the New York contract. It is a composite across coffee groups rather than a single delivery month, and the August figure is a monthly average, so it does not track any one session. It is also the most recent ICO figure published: those reports run monthly, and August 2026 is the latest listed.
What are analysts projecting, and what are they not?
Two houses have published surplus projections and they do not agree. Rabobank forecast a surplus of 8.9 million bags for the 2026/27 coffee year, on Comunicaffe's 1 September 2026 report. StoneX Specialty Coffee projects the global market shifting to a 10-million-bag surplus in 2026, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025, on Perfect Daily Grind's 25 September recap. Both are projections, they cover different periods, and neither is a measurement.
What has been measured is the Brazilian crop. Conab, Brazil's national crop agency, estimated the 2026 harvest at 67.6 million 60-kilo bags, a 19% rise on 2025/26, with arabica at 48.2 million bags, up 34.8%, and robusta at 19.4 million, down 6.6%, as reported in the same Perfect Daily Grind recap of 25 September 2026. This journal reported that survey on 29 September. It sits inside a longer arc of coffee pricing and the origins behind it.
Which figures is this built on?
- 288.75 US cents a pound, up 3.6%, reported by Comunicaffe on 29 September 2026 as the ICE arabica December contract close of 28 September 2026
- $3,412, up 1.3%, reported by Comunicaffe on 29 September 2026 as the ICE robusta November contract close of 28 September 2026
- 253,203 bags of certified stocks, reported by Comunicaffe on 29 September 2026
- 223,976 bags of ICE arabica certified stocks on 31 August 2026, described as the lowest since 1999 and reported by Comunicaffe on 1 September 2026
- 311.50 US cents a pound, the ICE arabica December contract close of 31 August 2026, reported by Comunicaffe on 1 September 2026
- Short positions up 277% in the non-commercial speculative sector, from Commitments of Traders data reported by Comunicaffe on 29 September 2026
- 287.29 US cents a pound, the ICO composite indicator monthly average for August 2026, published in its Coffee Market Report for August 2026
- 10.76 million bags of world green bean exports in July 2026, up 6.3% on July 2025, published in the ICO Coffee Market Report for August 2026
- 67.6 million bags for Brazil's 2026 harvest, estimated by Conab and reported by Perfect Daily Grind on 25 September 2026
- 8.9 million bags, Rabobank's projected surplus for the 2026/27 coffee year, a forecast reported by Comunicaffe on 1 September 2026
- 10 million bags, StoneX Specialty Coffee's projected 2026 surplus, a forecast reported by Perfect Daily Grind on 25 September 2026
Where does that leave the price?
Lower than a month ago, and the two figures say it without anyone having to interpret them. Comunicaffe reported the December arabica contract at 311.50 cents on 31 August 2026 and at 288.75 cents on 28 September 2026. The gain on 28 September came after that fall, not instead of it.
Photograph: Kia Sheikhy, Unsplash.
