Arabica coffee futures in New York lost 6.7% across September 2026, falling from 311.50 US cents a pound at the end of August to 290.70 cents at the end of September on the December contract, according to a monthly review by Lessandro Carvalho of Safras & Mercado, published on 2 October. Robusta in London fell 2.4% over the same stretch on the November contract, Safras reported. On those September 2026 figures, the December arabica contract gave up 20.8 cents a pound, which is about $27.50 on a 60-kilogram bag of roughly 132 pounds.
The month ended on a rally, which kept the loss from being larger. Comunicaffe reported on 1 October that the December contract settled at 290.70 cents on 30 September, up 6.8% from a monthly low of 272.30 cents reached on 22 September. Our report on that rebound covered the speculative short-covering behind it through 28 September. What has changed since is that the month is now closed, and the full September result is a decline.
Why do two reports give different September declines?
They measure from different starting points. Safras measured from the close of August to the close of September 2026 and reported a 6.7% arabica loss and a 2.4% robusta loss. Comunicaffe measured from the first day of September 2026 and reported that arabica futures fell by 6.1% and robusta by just under 0.5%. Both give the same 290.70-cent settlement for 30 September. The gap is a matter of which day counts as the start of the month, not a disagreement about where prices ended.
What pushed prices down in September?
Gil Barabach, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, told Safras on 2 October that September brought a change in how the market sees the global flow of supply. In his account, Brazilian shipments jumped above 4 million bags in August 2026 and stayed strong in September, with partial data from Cecafé, the Brazilian exporters' council, pointing to more than 4 million bags again. Safras reported that favorable weather for flowering ahead of Brazil's next crop, and the approach of harvests in other large origins, added to that reading. Cecafé has not yet published its full September figure, so that number is a partial reading rather than a final count.
The selling reached Brazil's physical market too. Safras reported that good-cup new-crop arabica in southern Minas Gerais fell from R$1,770 to R$1,650 a bag on the buying side during September 2026, a drop of 6.8%. Conilon type 7 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, fell from R$1,020 to R$990 a bag over September 2026, down 2.9%, on Safras' figures. Conilon is Brazil's name for its robusta, which is a different species from arabica, as our explainer on robusta covers.
Prices fell again on the first day of October. A daily market report dated 2 October and posted on the website of the Uganda Coffee Development Authority reports the December arabica close on 1 October as 288.25 cents, down 2.45 cents. The same report said a rally in the dollar index to a year high prompted long liquidation in coffee futures, meaning traders who had bet on higher prices sold out of those positions. Carla Mendes of Notícias Agrícolas reported the same 1 October move as a 0.84% loss and tied it to the stronger dollar.
Why do some analysts say supply is still tight?
Eduardo Carvalhaes, director of the Escritório Carvalhaes brokerage in Brazil, told Notícias Agrícolas on 2 October that the world market has run for several years on a very narrow balance between production and consumption, without rebuilding stocks to a comfortable level. He estimated that about 16 million bags had already gone to Brazil's domestic market and to exports in the first three months of the current Brazilian crop year. His summary, in Portuguese, was "Se não faltar café, sobrar também não vai", which translates as: if coffee does not run short, there will not be a surplus either.
Exchange stocks are the other half of that argument. Comunicaffe reported that certified arabica stocks in ICE warehouses rose to 260,654 bags on 30 September, up from an all-time low of 217,646 bags, and said stocks a year earlier had stood at more than double the current level. Notícias Agrícolas reported on 2 October that certified arabica stocks reached their lowest level in about 27 years during September 2026.
Is Brazil's weather helping or hurting the next crop?
The published reports point in different directions, and none of them measures the 2027 crop. Safras described the weather as favorable for flowering, and the Uganda authority's 2 October report called growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam beneficial. Comunicaffe reported on 1 October that forecasts showed limited chances of rain in Minas Gerais, Brazil's leading arabica state, until the following week, and noted that regular rain in early spring matters for good flowering. Carvalhaes said the market still has open questions about new flowerings, how many open flowers set fruit, and temperature and moisture through October, November and December.
What is the most recent official price measure?
The International Coffee Organization's Coffee Market Report for August 2026 is still the newest one listed on the ICO's site. It reported that the ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 US cents a pound in August 2026, effectively unchanged from 287.26 cents in July. The ICO's September report had not been posted as of 5 October. Our piece on why coffee is still so expensive lays out the background to these price levels, and our report on Brazil's 2026 harvest covers the crop estimate behind much of the supply talk.
- December arabica in New York fell from 311.50 to 290.70 cents a pound across September 2026, down 6.7%, according to Safras & Mercado on 2 October 2026.
- The December contract's September low was 272.30 cents on 22 September 2026, according to Comunicaffe on 1 October 2026.
- Certified ICE arabica stocks stood at 260,654 bags on 30 September 2026, according to Comunicaffe on 1 October 2026.
- Southern Minas Gerais new-crop arabica fell from R$1,770 to R$1,650 a bag across September 2026, according to Safras & Mercado on 2 October 2026.
- The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 287.29 cents a pound in August 2026, according to the ICO's August 2026 Coffee Market Report.
Photograph: PROJETO CAFÉ GATO-MOURISCO, Unsplash.
