The International Coffee Organization's composite indicator price averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September 2026, down 8.7% from August, according to the ICO's Coffee Market Report for September 2026, which the organization's market-report page listed on 10 October. The report gave the reason in its headline: "I-CIP drops 8.7% as Brazil's record crop reaches the market." All four of the ICO's group indicators fell. The same report shows world green-bean exports in August 2026 up 15.6% on August 2025.
The composite, known as the I-CIP, is a monthly average built from the prices of four groups of coffee, so it describes September as a whole rather than any one trading day. It is the most recent month the ICO has published.
How far did each type of coffee fall in September?
The ICO's September report shows these monthly averages, each with its change from August 2026:
- Colombian Milds: 356.15 US cents per pound, down 8.1%
- Other Milds: 329.44 cents, down 8.8%
- Brazilian Naturals: 290.19 cents, down 9.9%
- Robustas: 167.49 cents, down 7.3%
On those September averages, a pound of Colombian Milds cost a little more than twice a pound of robusta. Brazilian Naturals fell furthest. The ICO's report also puts the gap between the London robusta and New York arabica futures markets, which traders call the arbitrage, at 126.40 cents for September 2026, 13.2% narrower than in August.
Why did the ICO say prices fell?
The report attributes the decline to supply. It cites the larger Brazilian harvest reaching the market and the expectation of ample supply that came with it, and it repeats Conab's estimate of a record 67.6 million bags for Brazil, the figure reported here on 29 September. The report also cites a USDA projection of record world output of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27. That is a forecast, not a measurement.
The ICO's own balance for the coffee year that ended in September 2026 estimates world production at 183.6 million 60-kg bags, of which 104.4 million were arabica and 79.2 million robusta, against consumption of 180.6 million bags. That leaves a surplus of 3.0 million bags by the ICO's estimate. The report puts the fall in consumption at 0.8% for 2025/26 and says it includes a decline in the United States.
The report also notes that speculators added to short positions in the middle of September and then covered them late in the month, the move reported here on 30 September. An earlier report on September's decline, published 5 October, rested on futures settlements and the ICO's August composite. The ICO's own September number was not yet out.
How much coffee did the world export in August?
The ICO reported green-bean exports of 10.94 million bags in August 2026, up 15.6% from 9.46 million in August 2025. At 60 kilograms a bag, that is about 656,000 metric tons of green coffee shipped in a single month. Exports in all forms, including roasted and soluble coffee, came to 12.55 million bags in August 2026, up 14.6%, the ICO reported.
For August 2026, the report shows robusta exports up 22.4% to 4.36 million bags and Brazilian Naturals up 21.3% to 3.57 million. It puts Brazil's August exports in all forms at 4.28 million bags, up 34.5%, and says Brazil's 2.92 million bags of Brazilian Naturals were the highest August on record. Vietnam shipped 2.24 million bags in all forms in August 2026, up 48.0%, according to the report. Colombian Milds went the other way: the ICO said exports from that group fell 5.6% in August 2026, its tenth month of decline in the coffee year.
What did Brazil's exporters report for September?
Brazil exported 3.894 million 60-kg bags of coffee in September 2026, up 3.1% from 3.778 million in September 2025, according to a release from Cecafé, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, published 9 October. Cecafé said export revenue fell 7.1% to US$1.282 billion. It reported shipments to the United States of 625,192 bags in September 2026, up 86.4% from 335,339 a year earlier.
Reuters, in a report carried by Forbes Brasil on 9 October, broke the Cecafé total down by type: about 3.58 million bags of green coffee, up 3.2%, made up of 2.766 million bags of arabica, down 7.1%, and 813,900 bags of conilon and robusta, up 65.1%.
Márcio Ferreira, Cecafé's president, said in the release that the September gain came from a recovery in shipments to the United States. He said the United States removed tariffs on most Brazilian coffee in November 2025 but kept them on soluble coffee until July 2026. Reuters reported Ferreira as saying that rain had damaged the quality of part of this year's arabica crop and that the damaged coffee was selling for less.
Cecafé put exports for the first three months of the 2026/27 crop year, July to September, at 11.21 million bags, up 15.5%. For January to September 2026 it reported 29.095 million bags, down 0.2%, and revenue of US$10.113 billion, down 8.6%. Cecafé counts differently from the government's Secex data, which reported 3.93 million bags of green coffee for September on 6 October, so the two figures are not compared here.
What have coffee futures done since September ended?
The New York December arabica contract settled at 292.70 cents per pound on 7 October, down 11.75 cents on the day, Notícias Agrícolas reported that afternoon in a market report by Guilherme Dorigatti. It closed at 289.05 cents on 8 October, according to Comunicaffe, which reported a fall of more than 5% over the two sessions from the highs of 6 October. Comunicaffe reported London's November robusta contract down 4.6% at US$3,423 per metric ton on 8 October and certified arabica stocks on the ICE exchange at 252,256 bags that day.
Comunicaffe attributed the pullback to Secex data showing a strong recovery in Brazilian green coffee exports. It said weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam and fears tied to El Niño were still supporting prices. Futures settlements and the ICO's monthly averages are different measures. The ICO's next monthly report will cover October.
Photograph: stephan de MARANTHI, Unsplash.
