Guatemala's coffee association, Anacafé, has cut its export forecast for the 2026-27 coffee year from 4.2 million to 3.8 million quintals because of El Niño, its president, Ricardo Andrés Destarac Bardales, told Prensa Libre (Urias Gamarro) in an interview published on 3 November. Destarac said the weather had affected flowering and the filling of the bean, according to the newspaper. By our arithmetic on the two forecasts Destarac gave Prensa Libre, the cut of 400,000 quintals for 2026-27 is about 9.5%.
The cut comes after a year of higher exports. Guatemala exported 4.28 million quintals of café oro, the dried and hulled green coffee the country trades, in the 2025-26 coffee year that ran from 1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026, up 15%, Anacafé reported on 13 October. Export earnings for the year came to US$1,440.6 million, up 12%, according to the same release.
How much did Guatemala earn per quintal?
Prensa Libre reported an average export price of US$336 per quintal for 2025-26, against US$344 in 2024-25, a fall of 2.3%, and put 2024-25 earnings at US$1,284 million. By our arithmetic, dividing Anacafé's US$1,440.6 million by its 4.28 million quintals gives about US$337, close to the figure Prensa Libre printed. Volume did not pass the 4.8 million quintals the country exported in each of the 2011-12 and 2012-13 coffee years, Prensa Libre reported.
Coffee was Guatemala's largest export product for a second year, at 11.1% of total exports, according to preliminary central bank figures to August 2026 cited in the Anacafé release. The association counted more than 125,000 coffee-growing families and about 500,000 jobs a year in the same document.
- Exports, 2025-26 coffee year: 4.28 million quintals, up 15%, according to Anacafé on 13 October 2026.
- Export earnings, 2025-26: US$1,440.6 million, up 12%, according to Anacafé on 13 October 2026.
- Export forecast, 2026-27: 3.8 million quintals, down from 4.2 million, according to Anacafé's president as reported by Prensa Libre on 3 November 2026.
- Price outlook, 2026-27: US$275 to US$300 per quintal, according to Destarac and Agexport's Sergio Mazariegos as reported by Prensa Libre on 3 November 2026.
Where does Guatemala's coffee go?
North America took 56% of 2025-26 exports, with 46% to the United States and 10% to Canada, Anacafé reported in its 13 October release. Europe took 24%, Japan 9% and South Korea 4%. Prensa Libre reported a United States share of 52% for 2025-26 in its 3 November article, which does not match the association's release; the figures here are Anacafé's.
What do growers expect for prices?
Destarac and Sergio Mazariegos, who coordinates the differentiated-coffee committee at the exporters' association Agexport, both told Prensa Libre they expect 2026-27 prices of US$275 to US$300 per quintal. That is a projection from two people in the trade, and it sits below the US$336 average Prensa Libre reported for the year just ended.
What is the weather service forecasting?
Guatemala's weather service, Insivumeh, gave a 100% probability of El Niño conditions from September 2026 to April 2027 in its October outlook, IberoNews (Jenniffer Marroquín) reported on 3 November. In August, the same service had reported rainfall deficits of 29% on the Pacific coast and in the central highlands and 17% in the west, according to IberoNews.
How does this fit the regional picture?
Sucafina projected on 4 November that Central America and Mexico would produce 9.3% less coffee in 2026-27, with Guatemala among the sharpest falls, as reported in our story on that forecast. In October, Reuters reported an initial forecast of a 10% fall for Guatemala's crop, covered in our report on El Niño and Central America. Honduras closed its own 2025-26 year with 7.3 million sacks exported, as covered in our Honduras report.
Photograph: Gerson Cifuentes, Unsplash. Taken in San Marcos, Guatemala, and not connected to the events reported here.
