London's November robusta coffee contract lost more than 5% in the week to Friday, 23 October 2026, according to Brazil's Notícias Agrícolas, while stocks of robusta held in exchange-certified warehouses climbed to their highest level in about a year. November settled at US$3,228 per tonne on 23 October, down 5.45% on the week, and January settled at US$3,242, down 4.79%, according to Guilherme Dorigatti's closing report for Notícias Agrícolas on 23 October. By our arithmetic from those figures, November fell about US$186 a tonne over five sessions, or roughly US$11 on each 60-kilo bag of robusta.
Arabica moved less. New York's December contract settled at 307.45 US cents per pound on 23 October, down 5 cents on the day, but still 0.61% above its close of 305.60 the Friday before, the same Notícias Agrícolas report said.
What happened to arabica during the week?
It rose early in the week and fell back by Friday. Our report on 20 October covered the two-session jump that took December arabica to 315.70 cents on 19 October, as reported by Notícias Agrícolas, which traders tied to short covering and low certified stocks.
December settled at 316.15 cents on 21 October, up 4.85, according to the daily market report dated 22 October posted on the website of Uganda's coffee authority. On 22 October it settled at 312.45, down 3.70 or 1.2%, as Fábio Rübenich reported for Agência Safras with information from Reuters.
The gap between the December and March arabica contracts also widened. Terra Agro Insights put that spread at 7.15 cents on 12 October and 15 cents on 22 October, as cited by Notícias Agrícolas on 23 October. A wider gap means the nearby contract is trading at a larger premium to the next one.
What did certified stocks do in New York and London?
In London they rose. The Uganda daily report of 22 October said ICE robusta inventories reached a one-year high of 6,380 lots on 21 October and read that rise as a weight on robusta prices. Notícias Agrícolas, citing Barchart, reported 6,488 lots on 22 October, the highest level in about 13 months.
In New York they moved up and down within a narrow band. Agência Safras reported on 22 October that ICE-certified arabica stocks rose by 4,847 bags to 239,748 on 21 October, after a five-week low of 234,901 bags on 20 October, and that about 28,000 bags were waiting to be graded. A day later, Hildeberto Jr. of Safras News reported in Canal Rural that the figure stood at 234,433 bags on 22 October, down 5,315.
For comparison, Agência Safras put the September low at 217,646 bags on 15 September, a 27-year low. By our arithmetic, 234,433 bags is about 14,000 tonnes of green coffee, and the ICO's September report estimated world consumption at 180.6 million bags for 2025/26, which works out to roughly half a day of global drinking held in New York's certified warehouses.
What is happening to Brazil's next crop?
Two reports this week described a good start, with heat named as the risk. Rabobank's Brazilian Coffee Monthly Update for September, reported by Notícias Agrícolas, which names analyst Claudio Delposte, and by Beatriz Gunther for Canal Rural on 21 October, recorded September rainfall well above the 15-year average in three growing towns:
- Guaxupé, south Minas Gerais: 154 mm, against an average of 57.2 mm, according to Rabobank
- Manhuaçu, Matas de Minas: 111 mm, against 28.5 mm, according to Rabobank
- Linhares, Espírito Santo, a robusta (conilon) area: 90 mm, against 29.4 mm, according to Rabobank
By our arithmetic, Guaxupé had about 2.7 times its usual September rain. Both outlets reported that the bank sees more favorable prospects for Brazil's 2027/28 crop, and that it stressed a larger supply is not yet a confirmed surplus. Canal Rural also reported the bank's view that better weather in Vietnam and Indonesia reduces supply risks for 2027/28.
Cepea, the applied-economics center at the University of São Paulo, said in a note republished by Notícias Agrícolas on 21 October that flowering was within expectations and fruit set was good in most regions. It named heat as the main short-term concern. In the Cerrado Mineiro, Cepea said, fruit set can only be confirmed around December, and producers in São Paulo fear heat and El Niño could make young fruit drop in the coming weeks.
What else did the week's reports point to?
Brazilian shipments and the weather. Terra Agro Insights, citing Cecafé data, put Brazil's October exports through 22 October at about 3.30 million bags, 43.2% above the same period a year earlier, as reported by Notícias Agrícolas on 23 October. That is a partial-month figure relayed by an analyst firm, not Cecafé's own monthly report, which last covered September. The same report said forecasts showed more weekend rain for Paraná, São Paulo and south Minas Gerais, with patchier rain further north.
The Uganda report of 22 October described favorable growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam as bearish for coffee prices. For the robusta side of that, our 21 October report on Vietnam's 2026/27 crop covers what growers there expect, and our explainer on robusta covers how the species differs from arabica.
The ICO had not published an October market report when we checked on 24 October. Its September report put the September 2026 average at 262.18 cents per pound, according to the ICO.
Photograph: Julian Andres Carmona Serrato, Unsplash.
